债券交易员不相信美联储下一步可能加息！押注降息周期延续至2027年

\u003cdiv class=\"rich_media_content\"\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_ERROR_2--\u003e\u003cp data-end=\"118\" data-start=\"44\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e美国期货和期权市场的交易员正加码押注，美联储不仅将在今年继续降息，而且降息周期可能延续至明年，而不是如之前预期那样在2027年重新加息。\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c!--NO_AD_0--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_0--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_0--\u003e\n\u003cp data-end=\"200\" data-start=\"120\"\u003e与担保隔夜融资利率（\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_0--\u003eSOFR\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_0--\u003e）挂钩的期货利差（该利率紧密反映市场对美联储政策路径的预期）正出现明显倒挂。这表明交易员开始为一个更长时间的宽松周期定价。\u003c!--NO_AD_1--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_1--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_1--\u003e\n\u003cp data-end=\"289\" data-start=\"202\"\u003e需要指出的是，\u003cstrong\u003e直到不久前，市场仍押注美联储将在今年年底前进行两次25个基点的降息后，于2027年恢复加息。\u003c/strong\u003e然而，围绕\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_BEGIN_0--\u003e人工智能\u003c!--SECURE_LINK_END_0--\u003e对劳动力市场影响的讨论日益升温，促使交易员重新评估这一预期。\u003c!--NO_AD_2--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_2--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_2--\u003e\n\u003cp data-end=\"434\" data-start=\"354\"\u003eSOFR期权市场也呈现类似的\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_1--\u003e鸽派信号\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_1--\u003e。相关交易倾向于对冲今年多次降息的可能性，某些期权合约的未平仓合约数量显著增加，例如12月到期、行权价98.00的看涨期权。\u003c!--NO_AD_3--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_3--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_3--\u003e\n\u003cp data-end=\"498\" data-start=\"436\"\u003e自上周末以来，SOFR利差的趋平走势明显加速。与此同时，人工智能“颠覆性冲击”的担忧打压了一批股票，并推动长期美国国债上涨。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp data-end=\"498\" data-start=\"436\"\u003e美联储上周公布的\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_2--\u003eFOMC\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_2--\u003e会议纪要暴露决策层对利率未来走向的巨大分歧，除了支持降息派和观望派，纪要还首次明确提到有人讨论加息的可能性。这反映出，在通胀持续高于美联储目标2%、经济保持韧性的情况下，美联储的政策重心重新回到通胀风险，而非就业放缓。\u003c!--NO_AD_4--\u003e\u003c!--EOP_4--\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\u003c!--PARAGRAPH_4--\u003e\n\u003cp data-end=\"498\" data-start=\"436\"\u003e周二，美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）警告称，若人工智能的广泛应用推高失业率，美联储可能无法完全对冲其带来的冲击。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp data-end=\"570\" data-start=\"500\"\u003eBrandywine Global Investment Management投资组合经理Jack McIntyre表示：\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cblockquote\u003e\n\u003cp data-end=\"658\" data-start=\"572\"\u003e问题在于，人工智能究竟会不会带来\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_3--\u003e通胀压力\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_3--\u003e，或许\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_BEGIN_4--\u003e收益率曲线\u003c!--VERTICAL_CARD_END_4--\u003e的长端已经在提前反映这一点。AI唯一可能带来通胀的方面，是数据中心建设及其相关的能源需求，而这一点是市场已知的。\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/blockquote\u003e\u003cstyle\u003e.rich_media_content{--news-tabel-th-night-color: #444444;--news-font-day-color: #333;--news-font-night-color: #d9d9d9;--news-bottom-distance: 22px}.rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}.rich_media_content .qn-editor-copy p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:unset;line-height:unset;margin-bottom:unset;word-wrap:unset}.rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-day-color);font-size:18px}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content .qn-editor-copy p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]):not(.qn-editor-copy){letter-spacing:unset;line-height:unset;margin-bottom:unset;word-wrap:unset}body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-night-color)}}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:.5px;line-height:30px;margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance);word-wrap:break-word}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content .qn-editor-copy p:not([data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]){letter-spacing:unset;line-height:unset;margin-bottom:unset;word-wrap:unset}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content{color:var(--news-font-night-color)}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content{font-size:18px}.rich_media_content p[data-exeditor-arbitrary-box=image-box]{margin-bottom:11px}.rich_media_content\u003ediv:not(.qnt-video),.rich_media_content\u003esection{margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance)}.rich_media_content hr{margin-bottom:var(--news-bottom-distance)}.rich_media_content .link_list{margin:0;margin-top:20px;min-height:0!important}.rich_media_content blockquote{background:#f9f9f9;border-left:6px solid #ccc;margin:1.5em 10px;padding:.5em 10px}.rich_media_content blockquote p{margin-bottom:0!important}.data_color_scheme_dark .rich_media_content blockquote{background:#323232}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]):not([dark-mode-disable=true]) .rich_media_content blockquote{background:#323232}}.rich_media_content ol[data-ex-list]{--ol-start: 1;--ol-list-style-type: decimal;list-style-type:none;counter-reset:olCounter calc(var(--ol-start,1) - 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